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Unmasking COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy: Socioeconomic Drivers and Policy Pathways From U.S. Counties to Global Insights

by Sunay Chawla, Brown University
May 27, 2026 ISBN: 979-8-89480-845-1 NYCSEA Journal

 

Abstract: This study investigates the socioeconomic determinants of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy through a comprehensive analysis of U.S. county-level data (n = 3244) and international comparisons across 89 countries. Initial variable selection from 45 potential predictors utilized dimension reduction and a random forest algorithm (500 trees, mtry = 23) to identify key predictors, followed by correlation analysis and parallel multiple linear regression models at county and international levels. The analysis identified five primary predictors of vaccine hesitancy: educational attainment, household income, median house value, uninsured rates, and income inequality. The U.S. county-level random forest model demonstrated strong predictive power (R2=0.628, F(45,1202)=45.09, p<0.001), explaining 62.8% of variance in vaccine hesitancy rates, while the international model showed more modest results (R2=0.169), highlighting the importance of standardized data collection and national context. Educational attainment emerged as the strongest predictor, with a significant negative correlation (r=-0.578, p<0.001) between higher education rates and vaccine hesitancy. These findings suggest that targeted interventions addressing educational disparities and healthcare access may be most effective in reducing vaccine hesitancy. The stark contrast between domestic and international model performance emphasizes the need for standardized global data collection practices and locally adapted intervention strategies. This research provides a framework for evidence-based policy making and community-specific intervention design in future vaccination campaigns.

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